Political Analysts say that the death of Col Willy Ngoma, who was the spokesperson for the AFC/M23 Military group, could strengthen the coalition in its ongoing conflict, and could also serve as a reason to continue fighting, since the opposing side has crossed a line.
The death of Col Willy Ngoma was confirmed by AFC/M23 in a statement released on the night of Saturday, February 28,2026, noting that he was killed on February 24.
Ngoma, who was one of the most popular figures within AFC/M23, had been rumored dead in the media for some time, but the group had not officially confirmed it until now.
Some observers who follow the long-standing conflict in Eastern DRC say that AFC/M23 loses a key figure, which could demoralize other soldiers in the fight, while others argue that his death could anger the coalition, prompting a strong response or revenge.
During a television interview broadcast in Rwanda on Sunday, analysts Hon. Evode Uwizeyimana and John Mugabo discussed Ngoma’s death, saying it is a major loss for AFC/M23 but that such conflicts often continue despite the loss of key members.
Hon. Evode Uwizeyimana said, “For someone fighting for survival, their death or blood can sometimes inspire strength in those remaining.”
He compared this to Rwanda’s history, when leaders of the RPA, which later became the FPR-Inkotanyi, were killed at the start of their liberation struggle. He cited leaders like Fred Rwigema, Chris Munyenyezi, and Bayingana, saying that although people thought their deaths might end the struggle, the fight for liberation ultimately succeeded.
Hon. Evode said that while Col Willy Ngoma’s death is a serious loss for AFC/M23, such deaths can also motivate the remaining members, especially because the cause they fight for still exists.
He warned that the Congolese government should not celebrate Ngoma’s death because “what is behind it is unknown, and more people like Willy Ngoma, or even stronger could emerge.”
Analyst John Mugabo also drew a parallel to the death of Gen Fred Gisa Rwigema, saying that while some may see Ngoma’s death as the end of AFC/M23, the struggle has its own course. He noted that Ngoma was not the first high-ranking soldier in AFC/M23 to die; previous deaths were followed by events like the capture of Goma. He added, “In the secrecy of war, Ngoma’s death will reveal its consequences…”
Killing Willy Ngoma is a War Crime
The analysts also said that killing Willy Ngoma shows that the opposing side of AFC/M23 crossed a line, which could justify the coalition resuming or continuing combat operations.
John Mugabo said, “What happened violated the rules of war. The Congolese state not only breached ceasefire agreements but also international humanitarian law. This gives M23 the right to act, because anywhere that provided hope for cooperation no longer exists.”
He added, “AFC/M23 now has the right to take any action it chooses, which is justified in terms of self-defense… Even though Willy Ngoma has died, M23 has built a strong foundation.”
Hon. Evode explained that a ceasefire applies to both sides at the negotiation table, both the Congolese government and AFC/M23, but if one side violates it, the other side has the right to defend itself. He noted that Ngoma’s death, if it occurred during a ceasefire, qualifies as a war crime because it was not a time of active fighting
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