The National Bank of Rwanda cited an IMF forecast showing global inflation rising from 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 4.7 per cent in 2026 before falling to 3.9 per cent in 2027.
The figures were presented during the release of the bank’s October 2026 Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Statement, which examined global and domestic economic conditions and their possible effect on prices in Rwanda.
The forecast represented a reversal of the decline in global inflation recorded since early 2024. The IMF attributed the change partly to higher energy prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East.
The fund said further conflict could disrupt supply chains, increase commodity prices and tighten financial conditions. Greater fragmentation in international trade could also place additional pressure on prices.
Inflation in sub-Saharan Africa was expected to follow a different path. The regional rate was projected to decline from 12.5 per cent in 2025 to 8.8 per cent in 2026 and remain at that level in 2027.
BNR said global economic volatility still required close monitoring because external developments could affect inflation in Rwanda and the wider region.
Domestically, Rwanda’s headline inflation averaged 11.2 per cent during the first half of 2026, compared with 7.3 per cent in the second half of 2025. It reached 15.7 per cent in August as core, fresh-food and energy prices increased.
The central bank responded by tightening monetary policy during the year, raising its policy rate to 8.75 per cent in August. The interbank lending rate averaged 7.43 per cent in the first half of 2026, up from 6.54 per cent during the same period in 2025.
The price increases occurred while Rwanda’s economy remained strong. Real gross domestic product grew by 9.7 per cent in the first half of 2026, supported by growth in services, industry and agriculture.
BNR expected headline inflation to remain above the upper limit of its 2–8 per cent target range during the second half of 2026 before easing in 2027 as domestic cost pressures and earlier economic shocks diminished.
Adverse weather and continuing tensions in the Middle East remained the main risks to that outlook.
“The focus is clear: keep inflation expectations anchored, prevent temporary price pressures from becoming persistent, and safeguard price stability,” the bank said.
BNR said it remained prepared to adjust monetary policy if further inflationary risks emerged.
Elie GATETE
RADIOTV10