After the Government of the Democratic Republic of Congo and the AFC/M23 signed a framework document outlining the principles of declaration that will guide peace agreements, analysts suggest that while the mediator tried to strike a balance between both parties’ interests, the rebel coalition stands to gain more than the government.
The document was signed last Saturday in Doha, Qatar, where peace talks have been ongoing in a bid to resolve the prolonged conflict in eastern DRC.
The document outlines principles organized into seven categories: general principles, permanent ceasefire, confidence-building measures, reinstatement of government authority, repatriation of refugees and internally displaced persons, the role of MONUSCO and regional strategies, and peace agreements.
Each category highlights actions to be implemented, implying that both parties are expected to adhere to specific responsibilities.
Senator Evode Uwizeyimana, an expert in international law, said the document was crafted in a way that both sides can see themselves reflected in it, even if it means making some compromises.
He compared the document to what is known in legal terms as a “contract of adhesion” a take-it-or-leave-it agreement, saying: “It’s like those insurance or bank contracts where your name and figures are filled in and all you have to do is sign. That’s what this looks like.”
He added that although much remains to be seen, the document still shows a form of balance between the two parties at this stage before actual negotiations begin.
On the clause about the reinstatement of government authority, Uwizeyimana noted that it must only happen after the root causes of the conflict have been addressed.
He stated: “For now, I can say there’s equilibrium in the principles whether it’s the Congolese Government or the AFC/M23, aside from the usual narrative of diplomatic victory. What we see today is an attempt by the mediator to ensure both parties are accommodated.”
M23 Gained More than the Kinshasa Government
Journalist and political analyst James Munyaneza said that based on the content of the framework, the AFC/M23 coalition gained more than the government.
He said: “What we have is a signed document, but I don’t see any political gain on the part of the Congolese government. The document leans in favor of AFC/M23.”
He cited four main points including, the Congolese Government agreed to sit at the negotiating table with the coalition it had always labeled a terrorist group and previously ruled out any possibility of dialogue.
He said: “By signing the agreement regardless of what it’s called, they have granted M23 legitimacy. In the eyes of Congolese citizens and the Congolese State, M23 is now recognized.”
He added: “For the first time, the agreement acknowledges that M23 will remain in the areas it controls, contradicting all previous UN, SADC, or other resolutions that demanded M23 withdraw.
The document also addresses a long-standing M23 demand that the government of Congo should cease using hate speech and inciting division, especially against Kinyarwanda-speaking Congolese Tutsis.
“M23 was never accused of this. It’s the Congolese government that has repeatedly been blamed by M23 and others.”
He said the fourth is that “The agreement stipulates that returning refugees should have their rights restored. If you look at it overall, and try to identify what the government managed to retain from its rigid stance there’s hardly anything there.”
Munyaneza added that the only gain for the Congolese government from these principles might be that M23 has been asked not to expand the territory it currently controls. He added” What you can do is to continue operating, and possibly prepare for more talks without being ousted from power.”
Political analyst Me Jean Baptiste Gasominari also noted that while it may be too early to definitively declare a winner, M23 has tangible gains to be satisfied with.
He said: “Everything they demanded as reasons for taking up arms is clearly reflected in the principles laid out in this agreement.”
He added: “First, they’ve been acknowledged as an armed group with legitimate, recognized grievances by both parties and the international community. That’s something that can’t be dismissed. it has been agreed upon.”
Me Gasominari emphasized that this recognition is significant because it validates M23’s justification for resuming armed struggle on an international level.
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