Former Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) President Joseph Kabila’s new leadership role in an alliance has raised questions about whether his political influence could help the movement gain support beyond its strongholds in eastern Congo.
An analysis published by the international news agency Reuters on Friday, October 16, examined whether Kabila’s political experience and regional connections could strengthen the alliance’s national ambitions or bring meaningful changes to the conflict.
The former president assumed leadership of the Front pour la Refondation de la Nation (FRN), a newly established political-military alliance formed through the reorganisation of the Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC) and M23 movement.
The change places one of Congo’s most prominent political figures at the centre of the rebellion, which has been seeking to expand its influence beyond the eastern provinces under its control.
According to Reuters, Kabila’s appointment could help the alliance present itself as a movement with broader national ambitions rather than one primarily associated with the conflict in eastern Congo.
However, his ability to turn that political profile into wider support remains uncertain.
“It remains to be seen how much support Kabila will be able to rally around the rebellion,” Reuters reported.
Kabila, who governed the DRC from 2001 to 2019, maintains political connections within the country and across the region, including in Kenya, Namibia and South Africa.
His influence could also become significant in the southern Katanga region, where dissatisfaction with President Félix Tshisekedi’s administration has been growing.
However, the rebel movement has not extended its territorial control into Katanga, and it remains unclear whether Kabila’s political connections could generate meaningful support outside eastern Congo.
Despite his experience, the former president faces challenges in rebuilding the political network that supported him during his years in power.
Several former allies have joined Tshisekedi’s political camp, gone into exile or been imprisoned, while others have publicly distanced themselves from Kabila following his decision to lead the alliance.
The new leadership structure has also retained several prominent figures from the previous rebel movement.
Former AFC coordinator Corneille Nangaa and M23 political leader Bertrand Bisimwa have assumed vice-presidential positions, while veteran rebel commander Sultani Makenga continues to lead the movement’s military operations.
Their continued involvement indicates that the alliance’s military leadership remains largely unchanged despite the appointment of a former head of state.
Kabila also faces legal and diplomatic challenges that could complicate his efforts to rebuild political influence.
In September 2025, a Congolese military court sentenced him to death in absentia after convicting him of treason and other offences connected to his reported involvement with the group.
Kabila rejected the accusations and described the proceedings as politically motivated.
In April 2026, the United States imposed sanctions on the former president, accusing him of providing material and financial support to M23 and AFC.
The leadership changes have also raised questions about the future of peace negotiations between the Congolese government and the rebel movement.
The AFC/M23 alliance had been participating in Qatar-mediated talks aimed at securing a ceasefire and reaching a broader political settlement.
Following the formation of the FRN, the new movement declared that it would honour the rights, obligations and commitments previously undertaken by AFC/M23, including those associated with the Doha negotiations.
However, fighting has continued in eastern Congo despite diplomatic efforts, with both sides accusing each other of failing to respect previous agreements.
While Kabila’s appointment has given the alliance a more prominent political leader, the question remains whether that change will translate into broader support or influence the course of the conflict and ongoing peace negotiations.
Elie GATETE
RADIOTV10